slow and steady wins the race!

We all want to win loads and loads of cash, retire early  and sail off into  the sunset  on a nice and fancy  new yacht, But lets be realistic unless  your are the jammiest person in the world  that's  not going to happen.

So  how  much  do  we want  to win?  That's  easy,  as much as possible.

How much   do we win?  Again  that's  easy , not a whole lot.

How much is do you  think is acceptable to win?  Hmm  good question,  I need to think about this one.

As I have mentioned before  I have a couple of mates  in work  who  like to have a little flutter  here and there. So  I asked them to complete a little survey  for  me.  To their  credit  after  the general piss taking  and been told where I could go, most duly obliged and happily  filled in my survey after I promised them I will make them 30k in 7 years...sshhh don't tell them  its a promise I can't keep.

Anyway  the results were not that surprising considering  it was similar to my thinking when  I was a bog standard  punter.  On average  these guys  wager roughly €100 p/m. Some more some less, and  most  break even or make a small loss but nothing substantial,  perfectly  fine  if  its just a hobby  to  keep you going and  you are not thinking of making money.

I than asked  how  much would you be happy  to make a month,  except  for  one greedy gut  most  were happy   with about €100/to €200 p/m.  That's  a whopping  100 to 200% ROI  each month.  Talk about  high  expectations.  Now unless they have  some physic ability  I don't know about ,this is near to impossible to achieve each month, or any month for that matter assuming you are betting consistently of course,  Myself  I thought  that 25% ROI  was acceptable but  after doing some  digging  I think  even that is a little  too optimistic.

It seems  to  be  of the general opinion, (from what I read anyway) that  between 10 & 16% ROI  is  an acceptable return,  So for every €100  you  bet you would win €16.  Not a lot  but  if you bet €1000  you would win €160 and so on, so you can see how it all adds up.

So for now my aim will be to achieve this sort of ROI,  if  I do better  ill be happy  but if I don't make it I wont be  fussed. I think its easy  to get yourself bogged down on these kind of figures  so I will use it as a guide only.  I did however  come up with a little table  for  my Gambling friends, where they target  to  grow  their  existing bankroll by 16% each month  by  starting off with a measly €20.  Table below is based on increasing bank by 16%  each month :

	YEAR 1
	starting bank	end of month		winnings per week/day
month 1	€            20.00	€              23.20		€                           0.80 / 0.11
month 2	€            23.20	€              26.91		€                           0.93 / 0.13
month 3	€            26.91	€              31.22		€                           1.08 / 0.15
month 4	€            31.22	€              36.21		€                           1.25 / 0.18
month 5	€            36.21	€              42.01		€                           1.45 / 0.21
month 6	€            42.01	€              48.73		€                           1.68 / 0.24
month 7	€            48.73	€              56.52		€                           1.95 / 0.28
month 8	€            56.52	€              65.57		€                           2.26 / 0.32
month 9	€            65.57	€              76.06		€                           2.62 / 0.37
month 10	€            76.06	€              88.23		€                           3.04 / 0.43
month 11	€            88.23	€           102.35		€                           3.53 / 0.50
month 12	€          102.35	€           118.72		€                           4.09 / 0.58
€ 78.72	year 2
year 2	starting bank	end of month		winnings per week/day
month 1	€          118.72	€           137.72		€                           4.75 / 0.68
month 2	€          137.72	€           159.75		€                           5.51 / 0.79
month 3	€          159.75	€           185.31		€                           6.39 / 0.91
month 4	€          185.31	€           214.96		€                           7.41 / 1.06
month 5	€          214.96	€           249.35		€                           8.60 /1.23
month 6	€          249.35	€           289.25		€                           9.97 / 1.42
month 7	€          289.25	€           335.53		€                         11.57  / 1.65
month 8	€          335.53	€           389.22		€                         13.42 / 1.92
month 9	€          389.22	€           451.49		€                         15.57 /2.22
month 10	€          451.49	€           523.73		€                         18.06 / 2.58
month 11	€          523.73	€           607.52		€                         20.95 / 2.99
month 12	€          607.52	€           704.73		€                         24.30 /3.47

As you can see by winning a small amount  each day starting out  with a measly €.08 p/w  for the first month  you can grow you bank to nearly 6 time the initial amount in the first  year  and 35 times your initial amount by the end of  year 2,  if  you  continue in the same form  and again I'm assuming  you win the desired amount each week  you  can grow  €20  into  € 4,183.29 in 3 years,  Sounds too good to be true and  in truth it probably is  as it would need someone with extreme  discipline  to carry  on  and execute  this every  day  but  certainly  from these kind of  figures it is not impossible.            Now iv  tried in vain to  help my  gambling buddies  to join me on the trading  adventure but I may as well  be pissing against the wind  so  I told them to open up a separate account to  just  follow the above and they  can gamble away to their hearts  content as  normal  on their other accounts  to fill their  urges to win big.  If over time they  see that  the above method is working than  it might help  them,  somewhat,  transform  even into a smarter punter that  can  build up small amounts instead of chasing that illusive big win.

Myself I am going to open up two accounts, I am going to deposit  20 big ones  in both,   on march  1^st.  In one account I will follow  the method of increasing  my bank  by 16%  per month,  I may  even  increase this to 20%  for the first year as the figures are so small.  In the second I am going to  try and  increase my  bank by 3%  a day. (  this is inspired  by another blog I'm following) http://newsportsexchangetrader.blogspot.com/ ,  I wont be able to do it everyday  but  a couple of days  a week will do.  I Plan  on probably achieving these  by scalping the in play markets  in  football and maybe some  tennis matches . It will be a nice side for me while I'm doing my matched betting.

  Well At this stage  iv probably bored you all to tears  as the post is longer than expected  so I will leave  you with my usual stats  for the weekends football.  Stay  green  folks  and have a good weekend.

Home team - Away team	1	x	2	prediction	c/s
Vitória Setúbal - FC Porto	9	20	71	away	0 - 2
Real Madrid - Racing Santander	68	23	9	home	1 - 0
SC Freiburg - Bayern München	16	16	68	away	0 - 2
AC Cesena - AC Milan	21	13	66	away	0 - 1
AFC Ajax - De Graafschap	66	27	7	home	4--1
Dijon FCO - OGC Nice	24	66	11	draw	1--1
Hertha BSC Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	13	24	63	away	0 - 1
Bayer Leverkusen - FC Augsburg	58	31	11	home	1--4
Hoffenheim - Mainz	21	57	22	draw	1--1
Kaiserslautern - Mönchengladbach	16	28	56	away	2--1
US Lecce - AC Siena	20	59	21	lay home	1--1
Feyenoord - RKC Waalwijk	55	24	22	lay away	1--2
Juventus FC - Calcio Catania	44	48	8	lay away	1--1
Granada CF - Real Sociedad	21	24	55	lay home	2--1

Home team - Away team	over 2.5goals
Bayer Leverkusen - FC Augsburg	4.25
SM Caen - Évian Thonon Gaillard	4.25
Feyenoord - RKC Waalwijk	3.66
ADO Den Haag - SBV Excelsior	4.18
Heracles Almelo - Roda Kerkrade	3.78
Uniao Leiria - SC Beira-Mar	3.27